Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 0.061158 0.069231 0.077558 0.086758 0.096608 0.106808 0.118143
2025-04-27 0.046280 0.057936 0.070669 0.085467 0.102052 0.119938 0.140561
2025-05-04 0.039092 0.053075 0.069048 0.088315 0.110614 0.135325 0.164501
2025-05-11 0.032126 0.047215 0.065201 0.087638 0.114339 0.144613 0.181058
2025-05-18 0.028183 0.044359 0.064343 0.089960 0.121116 0.157058 0.200957
2025-05-25 0.024760 0.041668 0.063278 0.091680 0.126898 0.168146 0.219152
2025-06-01 0.020337 0.037073 0.059326 0.089403 0.127495 0.172834 0.229629
2025-06-08 0.016703 0.033096 0.055785 0.087295 0.128007 0.177191 0.239532
2025-06-15 0.015034 0.031770 0.055643 0.089457 0.133770 0.187859 0.256976
2025-06-22 0.013227 0.030000 0.054709 0.090433 0.137926 0.196503 0.271955
2025-06-29 0.012484 0.029829 0.055985 0.094348 0.145858 0.209842 0.292704
2025-07-06 0.010988 0.028217 0.055030 0.095109 0.149619 0.217945 0.307040
2025-07-13 0.010787 0.028951 0.057758 0.101299 0.160958 0.236126 0.334524
2025-07-20 0.008702 0.026042 0.054816 0.099446 0.161642 0.240925 0.345619
2025-07-27 0.007909 0.025429 0.055354 0.102513 0.168909 0.254136 0.367258
2025-08-03 0.006497 0.023333 0.053352 0.101762 0.170912 0.260541 0.380354
2025-08-10 0.005830 0.022673 0.053621 0.104307 0.177407 0.272760 0.400812
2025-08-17 0.005136 0.021821 0.053485 0.106192 0.182961 0.283754 0.419746
2025-08-24 0.003936 0.019476 0.050575 0.103696 0.182269 0.286463 0.428051
2025-08-31 0.002964 0.017381 0.047895 0.101383 0.181704 0.289249 0.436390
2025-09-07 0.002624 0.016952 0.048212 0.103756 0.187812 0.300911 0.456183
2025-09-14 0.002201 0.016142 0.047740 0.104826 0.192026 0.310045 0.472738
2025-09-21 0.002101 0.016362 0.049253 0.109114 0.200934 0.325525 0.497583